Infrastructure, skills and critical supplies

The 2024 AEDC found 23.5% of children developmentally vulnerable on one or more domains, compared with 22.0% in 2021. NCVER's 2025 survey found 62.4% of qualification completers reported improved employment status after training. Neither series measures an individual's innate ability or the causal return to a particular education budget. They identify development and transition outcomes requiring further analysis of access and support. Education AEDC summary (opens in a new tab), NCVER outcomes (opens in a new tab).

Business R&D rose from $20.642bn in 2021–22 to $24.410bn in 2023–24 in current prices. The corresponding chain-volume values are $22.141bn and $24.410bn: a calculated 10.25% real increase, versus 18.25% nominal growth. Total R&D across sectors was 1.69% of GDP in 2023–24, compared with 1.88% in 2015–16. Growth in dollars and a declining long-run GDP share can coexist. These inputs do not establish research quality, diffusion or public benefit. ABS R&D tables (opens in a new tab).

ABS's private new capital expenditure series recorded a 3.6% seasonally adjusted quarterly fall in volume in June 2026, but a 10.7% increase over the year. Its expectations for 2026–27 are intentions at a particular survey stage, not completed investment. The series has a defined business/asset scope; it is not all national investment or an infrastructure-condition survey. ABS capex (opens in a new tab).

Infrastructure Australia's 2025 five-year major public infrastructure pipeline was $242bn, up 14% on the previous report. This indicates prospective demand on labour and materials, not a maintenance backlog or productive value already delivered. The NT housing maintenance case in the housing briefing supplies a concrete output example. A reconciled national inventory of asset condition and deferred maintenance remains missing. Infrastructure Australia capacity report (opens in a new tab).

The Australian Petroleum Statistics workbook permits a reproducible FY2025–26 country-of-source calculation. The national monthly controls sum to 31,717.8 ML of diesel imports. Country rows sum to 31,717.7 ML, a retained 0.1 ML rounding difference. The largest reported suppliers were:

The first three account for a calculated 59.70% of diesel imports. Country of supply does not identify the crude's origin, ultimate owner, shipping route, contractual flexibility or exposure to a common refinery/feedstock shock. Imports are not net imports or consumption. This is a concentration measure, not a shortage probability. July 2026 APS workbook, Imports volume and Imports volume by country (opens in a new tab).

At end-July 2026, the workbook reports 28 days of diesel consumption cover, 31 for automotive gasoline and 20 for aviation turbine fuel. Its separate IEA measure is 50 days of net import cover across eligible oil stocks. These measures use different products and denominators. They cannot be compared as if “28 versus 90 days” were a direct test of diesel compliance. They are normal-consumption accounting ratios, not a prediction of the day fuel runs out. Same workbook, Consumption cover and IEA sheets (opens in a new tab), official stock definitions (opens in a new tab).

Substitution depends on fuel specification, usable stock locations, distribution, domestic refining feedstocks/capacity, freight and lead times, and the ability to reduce demand. The public country table does not resolve those constraints. Medicine supply chains are outside this selected dependency case; they are not presumed to have the same structure.

PC's 2024 mobility study estimates that 67% of Australians born in 1976–82 earned more than their parents at comparable ages under its income measure. The study uses individual pre-tax total income including support payments for tax filers, averaged over a decade where possible between ages 29 and 44. It is a historical cohort result, not a prediction for current children or a wealth comparison. Housing, health, unpaid work and environmental inheritance require separate measures. PC mobility study, summary and methods (opens in a new tab).

Status: the selected capacity and fuel-concentration baseline is checked. It does not establish full national maintenance needs or a supply-security stress test. Commonwealth/state investment, education providers, employers and supply-chain firms affect the outcomes. Model requirements in ADOPTION.md keep an arithmetic exposure comparison separate from forecasts or policy claims.